Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
